Will the World Forgive?

In America we live in bubbles.

One bubble rolls its eyes every time the President opens his mouth, wondering where the truth lies.

The other bubble stands and cheers every time he pushes a world leader out of the way.

Outside our borders and beyond our walls the world seems to have made up its mind.

Every time I talk with someone from another country they trip over themselves to find a way to bring up the topic of President Trump.  It often begins with: "You didn't vote for him, did you?"

In London they seem mildly embarrassed for us, as if something bad happened to a friend. They mumble something about Brexit, but the tabloids are unforgiving.

At a restaurant in Italy, when they learn you are from America, they launch into a re-telling of some story about Silvio Berlusconi as if to say:  "I understand."

In a cab in Croatia talk turns to politics and Washington and the state of our United States.

As the storm raged in Charlottesville and the President wondered aloud whether the KKK or the anti-KKK protesters were at fault, the cabbie's mood brightened when we told him we were from Washington, DC.

He was kind to us, but must have marveled at our astonishing lack of knowledge about a war that occurred in his backyard during the Clinton Administration.

But he wasn't judging us on that.

"Trump is a joke," he said in an accent that sounded like Vladimir Putin.  "But don't worry, America is still the greatest country in the world."

"Why do you think that?" I asked, "I mean with all that's going on?"

"We learned at an early age that America is the greatest country. The greatest economy and strongest military," he said. "During the war there was an aircraft carrier right out there," he said, pointing to the perfect blue of the Adriatic Sea. "That makes an impression on you."

"And the impression isn't ruined by President Trump?"

"This is a blip," he says. "Trump is not America.  One mistake does not ruin your greatness."

Days later a chef on the island of Hvar is, to me, remarkably fluent in the issues of Trump, North Korea and Hillary's email server.

"So what do you think?" I ask.

"You have a child running your country," he said. "On election night we were watching and couldn't believe it. Lots of countries are making this mistake, but America?"

"So does this make us like everybody else?" I asked.

"People here were laughing at first" he said.  "But now we are worried.  Maybe you can't control him."

Croatia is a long stretch of land, including 1200 islands, just the other side of the Adriatic from Italy.  A beautiful country of people who spend their summers on the coast taking care of tourists and their winters inland making money.

At a small restaurant on a tall narrow side street a family gathers for lunch. The family includes the restaurant owner, his wife and two grown children, a grandchild, two cousins and some employees. They eat a stew of leftovers, drink some wine and smoke cigarettes. They talk and laugh, and talk and laugh, until they are interrupted by a potential customer.

When the customer asks for a table the owner looks at his daughter, both award-winning chefs, they shake their heads. Better to stay closed rather than interrupt the family lunch.

"It's the Mediterranean way," the old man says, before telling his grandson to put his phone away.

On a recent call with a colleague from Hamburg Germany the discussion turned from business.

"Can we talk Trump for a minute?" he asked.

"Do you think America can recover from this?" I ask.

"Well," he said after a long pause. "I come from a country where we too were embarrassed by our leader.  America will be back."

"How do you know?" I ask.

"Here's what I've learned," he said, "the world forgives."

But it doesn't forget.

Fake News in a Real World: What It Means for Market Research

There is a famous New Yorker cartoon with one dog sitting in front of a desk-top computer telling another dog:  “On the internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.”

It appeared in 1993.

And now 24 years later the problem of internet identity has moved from a punch line to the front lines of business, news, politics and commerce.

The sad truth is that in 2017 on a Google results page, we all look the same.

On the internet we don’t know if a world super power hacked an election, or as President Trump said, it could be “Somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds.”

On a Google results page, where many business decisions are made, an unsuspecting consumer doesn’t know if you are a PhD who spent 400 hours analyzing a market or a recent graduate putting together numbers from a press release.

In the world of the New Yorker and dogs trying to pick up cats, it’s humorous.

In a 24-hour news cycle, it’s sobering.

In a business where trustworthy information is the coin of the realm, it’s industry-altering.

Why do we all look alike?

Historically, one way to show you were a reputable company was to brag about your resume, highlighting the top companies you serve.  In this new world you don’t need to really have them as clients; instead, you copy their logos from other websites and post them.

Another way to show you are reputable is to prove your US bona fides.  But instead of having an actual office now all you need is the address of an office share and suddenly you’re in Albany.

Another way to prove trustworthiness is a show of force on LinkedIn.  Now these questionable firms post fake identities and histories with head shots of unsuspecting strangers.

Since 2001 MarketResearch.com has sold information for more than 1,000 publishers from around the world.  We sought out new publishers, new titles and curated them in a way to help make buying expensive industry analysis easier.  Our first tag line was “Helping you find the market research you need,” because we knew that nothing felt worse than buying a $5,000 study and not getting your question answered.

What is relevance in the age of Google?

Relevance used to be the best report that answered your business question.  Now when a reputable publisher comes out with a report, a fake publisher can produce a slim volume with the same title a month later.  When a business user searches Google, the more recent title often rises to the top.   

When there is no apparent distinction between what is inside a report, all you can do is judge a book by its title.

As good data, or hard news, become watered down, client expectations change.  When a news headline turns out to be inaccurate, people begin assuming all news must have something wrong with it.

We face the same challenge in the information space.  We can suggest that a client buy a $5,000 study because it was written by an industry analyst who studied the market for 30 years and is an industry expert.  But too often that same client opts for a less expensive report published by a new firm with no track record.  When asked why the client will use the dangerous phrase:  “Well, good enough, is good enough.”

My response to that client is:  Expect more.  Ask questions.  Don’t rely on a clever title and a well-crafted marketing email.

There is a way to conduct accurate research.  Try reading a study on the US market for packaged goods that was written by a person who never stepped foot in a US grocery store and the difference is painfully obvious.

Fake news and alternative facts, while a problem for our democracy, can be ferreted out by choosing where you get your information. 

But when you need to make informed strategic business decisions, good enough is not good enough. In fact it’s risky. You need accurate information from a reliable source.