Dear Mr. President, Why Now?

I voted for you twice and until this week I would have a 3rd time.

I didn't just vote in those elections, I cheered, I gave money, I had faith.

I know how devastating it must be to find that your successor, is well, your successor and how much of your legacy will get steamrolled.

But you were always the happy one who told us it would be okay and smiled and graciously took the President-elect around the White House and showed us how a President, a mensch, as we would say, should act.

And then in the waning days you decide to take this final swipe.  

The question is not why, but why now?

We overlooked the Iran deal, we overlooked the icy relationship with Netanyahu, we supported you because in the end we needed to trust you. Many of us believe that Israel and our friendship with the US is the only thing that stands between us and a second Holocaust.

And now, after this public denouncement, my Democratic friends are bending over backwards to explain why this isn't so bad, "not unprecedented," they say.  These are writers and editors and opinion makers who we have previously trusted to help balance public opinion in the face of the UN and other institutions that are inherently Anti-Israel if note Anti-Semitic.  With all the problems in the world and all the places that need your attention you throw fuel on this fire?

With a month to go in this job you spend your energies and efforts and thoughts on this?  When I struggle to understand why the only answer, the only reason, the only possible thing that could compel you is the smallness of character that you have managed to avoid in your time in office in a town of small people.

You struck out at the Jews and Israel to make what point?  Do you believe this will really move the process forward?  Do you think this will bring people together, the overriding message of your campaigns and presidency?

The world is attracted right now to political parties and systems where the Jews have traditionally not fared well.

When the world is wrong on Aleppo, it's a tragedy for a city, maybe even for a country.  When you are wrong about Israel, it could mean genocide.

The world is on fire.  In the middle east there is an endless list of problems from Syria, Libya, Iran, Iraq.  In Europe and the US fear of cars slamming into Christmas crowds, the new Administration is taking new and untested positions, and in this environment where the world stage is over-crowded with fascists and nationalist you serve up the world's favorite scapegoat? 

Why now?  Why this?  Why us?

Business Lessons from Election Night

Election Night:  2016

Five days after the close of a month, I sit at my desk and go through our P/L (profit and loss) statement looking for signs, messages, trends, clarity.

I suspect many in the political world are doing the same.

I print out all the pages that show what we call the “monthly trend” so I can see how we’ve done in previous months, with a final column comparison to the budget.

I take out a wooden ruler from my drawer, and I follow each line asking myself questions about what I expected. 

Does it jive with what I was told? Does it go along with the narrative I heard over the previous 30 days?

If the election were my P/L, here is what I would consider:

1. Why did renewal rates go down?
2. Customers told a different story than sales and marketing
3. Customer appetite for risk should be a KPI (key performance indicator)

Democrats had a low renewal rate

In a recurring revenue business, we sell a subscription once and hope that with positive and attentive service, the customer will renew the following year. We are not surprised when a customer renews; we often budget for an 85% renewal rate. The surprise is when they cancel.

In the lead up to the election, there was an assumption that most of the electorate would renew the Democrat in the White House and perhaps the Democrats would even pick up some new customers in the House and the Senate. Instead, something was brewing with the customer base — they didn’t like the new operating system or the upgrade, and so they saw Election Day as a chance to cancel.

Whoever they were listening to got it wrong

When we are in the midst of a slump or a bad sales month, I ask people around the company what they are hearing. The sales and marketing team often describe similar scenarios like fewer sales days than the previous year, where the holidays fell, a top performer is on vacation, or budget season. The reasons follow a pattern and fill in a familiar narrative that makes us feel like we know why people are acting a certain way.

The media and pundits listened to one another and tossed away the outliers and began hearing the same anecdotes and seeing the same numbers. They all told the same story, and it backed up their assumptions, which turned out to be wrong.

Risk is not a KPI

There is restlessness in the world right now, business or otherwise. Maybe the electorate is a reflection of it, or business is nervous because voters are. Either way, customers are more fickle, brands matter less, customization matters more, history holds less weight, and the next thing is more interesting. 

People are willing to take risks on something new even if they aren’t sure it will get them what they want. All they know is what they have doesn’t get them what they need. It’s hard to measure. We need to gauge the appetite for risk.

In business, it’s called disruption.

In politics, it’s called a new administration

Rob Granader is the CEO and Founder of MarketResearch.com, a leading provider of global market intelligence products and services

Going Blue

"Make sure you write."

Those were the parting words my mother said to me as I left the family station wagon and headed into my college dorm for the first time.

The moment was playing out perfectly:  All three of us sitting in the front seat of the car, my mother crying, looking me in the eye as if I were going off to war.  My father, focused forward, thinking of the traffic. And then that line which sticks in my head these 30-odd years later.

Even then it sounded strange to me.  It was 1985 after all, telephones were plentiful, although it was cheaper to make long distance calls after 11.  It was before cell phones and the ubiquity of connection, but our room had a phone, a push button one with a long cord so we could walk into the hall for privacy.   So asking me to write seemed, well excessive.

I told her I would call.

Now I am in the driver's seat, of the car at least.  But really of nothing else. We are sitting in the same spot preparing to drop off our own precious cargo into that same Ann Arbor dorm.

The child is going to exit the car, I will have no grand pronouncements about how to stay in touch ("Make sure you Snapchat me?") and our world will change.

Weeks before she leaves we feel the tectonic plates of our family shifting again.

Last year when the first one went off to college it was like the world's first earthquake, unsure if the ground would ever stop moving.  If we would ever regain our footing.  And then they return home, and there are those nights when you have the chance to set the house alarm and everyone is home and in their beds and the world feels safe and right.

And then they go back out and you settle into a routine, albeit altered.

Now a second shift is taking place, a week before she leaves and it's different.  Yes, we've been through it before, but every change is change, each child decides how they want to transition away.  Some with a whimper, some with a roar.

This child always had a flair for the dramatic. There will be tears.

She barks demands from the kitchen telling my wife to order another case of her fave beverage.  We look at each other knowing that we only need a few more cans. This isn't a fall into each other's arms and cry moment, it's simply a realization that the fridge will be a little less full of certain things and the next time someone will want that drink is Thanksgiving.

Because the biggest lesson we learned from child one to child two is that it's not about the dropping off, it's about the coming home to the undisturbed bedroom, the quieter house, the emptier space.

In her brother's first year away we felt connected, but in a different way.  It's weird not knowing their people, their universe, hearing names or seeing faces online, but rarely meeting them in person.

We learn about things that happened to him three months after the fact. He laughs about memories we don't share.

We stay connected through our own means, different with each child, each parent.

Years ago on a family vacation we were being shown to our room by a bellman who stopped to point out the location of the closest ice machine. My son and I looked at each other and laughed, finding it an odd point of interest as we walked between the sandy beaches and blue waters of the Caribbean.

Now whenever I travel, whether to London or Cleveland, I snap a picture of the closest ice machine and text it to him.  No words are passed, no response necessary, just a connection from the life before he left.

So that's what my mom meant.  In the mixed-up emotions of a time when my parents were on the cusp of their own empty-nest-hood, before I thought of them as people with lives outside of mine, they must have been wondering what their life would be like at the other end of that car ride.  She was asking me to stay connected to her, this family, that life.

We arrive home and say goodnight to one child, instead of three.  Our house is a Presidential Library to all the things they achieved in their first 18 years, their rooms museums to their school projects, the hallways are galleries of their artwork.

I check online for a posting to the world to see where she might be. There are more ways to stay connected, so many ways to watch them as we move from the center of their lives to the periphery.

But I do hope she calls.  Or writes.

Land of Ice and Fire

We left Washington worrying about Trump eruptions, ISIS movements and warming temperatures. 

In Reykjavik they worry about volcanic eruptions, tectonic plates and a melting ice cap. 

It is a place that knows its future lies in its past.  Its strength in its people.  Its economy in its land.

In 2008 the economy was destroyed by men in suits. 

In 2010 relief came in the form of a volcano that disrupted air travel across Europe and put Iceland back on the map.

When the economy was tanking it was revived by nature.  They went from spreadsheets and balance sheets to ice sheets and Geysers, Blue Lagoons, Volcanoes and Waterfalls.

Tourism is up 3 fold.

The 320,000 people who call themselves Icelanders are proud and protective of their small island.

They often brag about how they are the best at this or the most at that, and then with a chuckle add, “per capita.”

Most Nobel Prize winners, per capita (1), highest rate of golf courses per capita (66), happiest population per capita (98%)

In the years leading up to the financial crisis the Iceland economy was driven by access to international credit markets.  When the crisis hit all three main Icelandic banks went belly up.

Iceland had enough of the rest of the world.

Iceland's energy doesn't come from the Middle East, it comes from falling water, heat from the earth, the force of the wind.

It is an extended family with one jail and few tenants. 

“When there is a crime they put the security pictures up on Facebook and someone says, ‘Hey that’s Einer’ and the police go get them,” our guide said.

Top punishment is 12 years in jail for murder, with good behavior you could be out in four.

“Cheaper than divorce,” they joke.  But it's unlikely with a murder rate 20x lower than the world average and few people marry with two thirds of babies being born out of wedlock.

The landscape is so reminiscent of the moon that NASA sent Apollo astronauts there in the 60's to train.  When the creators of Game of Thrones needed a place that looked untouched by man in an imaginary time, they chose Iceland.

They are a happy lot brought up on fear of elves and other previously unscary things.  Christmas is characterized by the story of Grýla, an Ogress, part troll/part animal, who, in the lead up to Christmas, comes down from the mountains in search of naughty children to boil in her cauldron.

Iceland’s story is not of immigrants.  It is a land of similarly situated people who care and watch out for each other. 

Their happiness rating has always been near the top of any industrialized country.  A fact that didn't change even as the country pushed through financial chaos.

Icelanders don't fear Vikings or gun violence, its bankers and volcanoes that can bring them down.

Icelanders know they can survive with what they have within their borders.  They have no standing army, they don't share a border, most have never been to Greenland, their closest neighbor.

“What will you do if Donald Trump wins,” the cabbie asks one of my children on the way to the airport.

“Move to Iceland,” she replied.

The cabbie laughs and said:  “That’s what everyone tells me.”

 

Measuring Adulthood

Someone declared that turning 18 makes you an adult.

I don’t know who that was, but I’m pretty sure they didn't have a daughter.

You can now vote.  Go to war.  Buy lottery tickets.  Legally marry.   

At 18 the world calls you an adult, but you have been this way since about the age of three.

Always an old soul.  Always intuitive and perceptive.  Always aware.

And while your 18th birthday is the headline, it is also the age of my business career, which started the week you were born.

It is no coincidence. 

When a young couple finds itself pregnant with the first child it's like being caught in a Tsunami that tumbles and tosses you until you land hard on the beach, a baby in your arms at three in the morning, the hum of a lactating machine in the background, the father fills a journal with out-sized emotions as if he were the first person in the history of the world to become a parent.

Pregnancy with the second child brings different emotions.  More fear than the first time but without the same new-car smell excitement.  Instead of a rolling thrill ride, it is a train coming down the track and it's gonna run over whatever normalcy you've built into your life.

So sometime in late 1997 we knew you were coming.  Your brother just past his first birthday when we learned you were percolating.

The Clinton/Lewinsky mess was about to explode and I was still writing for a living when I knew that we'd need more room, a bigger house, a second everything.

I hired a consultant and found a company in New York and transitioned from being a journalist with a degree in English Literature to a CEO with nary an Econ class to his name.

Mommy sat on the hospital floor, holding you swaddled in a blanket co-signing bank documents.  It is the kind of thing you do when you are just starting out, because we were young and figured there was time to make mistakes...if we made any at all.

I couldn’t know then that we would raise venture capital in the summer of 2000 just as the dot com bubble burst.  I couldn’t know that we’d launch our flagship product in New York and Washington in January 2001 just months before both cities were attacked.  I hadn't yet lived through the purchase of a South Korean business where the employees quit en masse to compete.  I hadn't survived September 2008 when my CFO frantically called saying that Lehman Brothers couldn't pay their $75,000 bill from the previous month.

But the company grew, as did you, and I would chide my employees by comparing:  "She's crawling, are we?"

I can recall every up and down of this business, each deal that we won and lost, every business slight, bad month, disgruntled employee, as I lived and died on quarterly financial reports.

I have no similar memory of our time with you.

There must have been bad nights, but we forget, fights and messes we don’t recall, highlighted by happy times captured in photo albums and the cloud.

I am unable to remember what it was like, the daily rhythm of you as a small child.  I remember trips, birthdays, moments, but they don’t tie together.  All I know is we want more of them.

Business is a difficult child, behaving well, then poorly, growing, then going flat.  But when we needed growth we'd buy something, when earnings disappointed, we'd cut.

But not with you. 

There are times we probably wanted to sell you off or you wanted to have us fired, but it doesn't work that way with love.

The bigger the business gets the more it needs me.

The bigger you get, the less you need us.

You and Marketresearch.com were born the same week, but I no longer compare the growth paths or trajectories.  I built a company through acquisition, people were hired and fired, businesses bought and sold, but you outpaced them all. 

No matter how low you think our stock might be you cannot fire us and we cannot let you go, even in a down market, when cash is low and sales are weak.  None of this matters, our currency is love.

It doesn’t matter if you walk across that stage with a diploma or sign a document that calls you an adult, because you remain in our hearts the girl who earned the name Messy Jessie because you always smelled of vomit, everything you ate ended up in an orange ring around your neck rolls.

You are not a business that needs a budget and cash flow statement to tell us how you are doing.  We watch you move through this world with amazement and we know you are the best investment we ever made.

Forty Nine (49): The Age of Vision

I fumble through the rack of "cheaters" at the local drugstore.

The training wheels of eyeglasses.

Which am I, a 1.0?  1.5?  I can't be a 2.0.

I was sure the blurriness was a brain malfunction.  I'd never worn glasses, never had trouble from near or far.  Even during law school, all throughout the growing up years I was the one who could read the label, the dosage, but no longer.  Now I squint, hold things up to the light, view a menu at a thousand paces.

I then blamed it on bad restaurant lighting.  But soon I was expanding the font on my iPhone, scratching my nose with newsprint, borrowing glasses at lunch time.

I'm still fine from long distance.  I can see a street sign before others, Natalie's time in the 200 Freestyle displayed on a video screen across the pool, the movie details on the outdoor marquee.

But I can't see what's right in front of me.

The second child is in college-preparation mode, her departure coming into focus.  The first child is knee-deep in his new environment: the freedom, the fun, the friends, the future.  His daily hurdles are no longer ours. We can't see them.

But I can see the future.

I see it in the lives of friends.

While our first went off to college, some in our orbit became empty-nesters.  While our parents move to Florida, some of the adults from our childhood fade away.

I see a future where the extended family dynamic changes, holidays when everyone coming to us is not an option, or atleast not the default. School schedules don't jive with life, the amoeba is breaking apart.

But I can't see up close.

I get home early one evening, dinner is done, the girls scamper away, it's 7:15 and there is nothing left to do.  There are hours that I cannot fill.

I see the future in the pace of our lives.

A house goes from bustling to quiet, a calendar empties from full to scattered.  For the past 18 years we squirrel away the moments when we have time to ourselves, to read a book, write a note, watch a show undisturbed.

Now there is more time than things to fill it up.  A weekend morning when no one needs anything from me.

Sundays have morphed.  At first they were exhausting struggles of who would get up with the kids. It moved on to Hebrew School drop off and soccer practices, pick ups from sleepovers, trips for bagels to feed a house full of teenagers who crashed on our basement couches.

Now we go to Yoga class alone and return before the house has stirred. The children wake in time for lunch.  Soon there will be no kids, nothing to rush back for.  Why wait in the Sunday morning line for one bagel?  I can go on Monday instead.

I can read the road signs off in the distance, but I don't recognize the icons on the Waze app in my hand.

Early in Game of Thrones Ned Stark warns that "Winter is Coming."  In the show seasons last for years.  A change of season is upon us.

How do you fill the quiet hours of a February weekend without kids to serve?  I see the future, but I can't quite make out this evening's calendar.

There are no glasses for that.